When you have company over for a delicious dinner and peach pie for dessert, either there are leftover pieces of pie, or there aren't. (And if the pie is really good, there are no leftovers.) There is no in between with pie. Either there's something there on the plate, or there isn't.
The same is true with trucking.
Either there's something there, or there isn't: either we have a shortage of drivers, or we don't. And how can there even be a question? And yet there is.
And the puzzlement continues. Either the current trucking issues are multifaceted, or it's a simple issue. Such strange extremes are in the trucking industry right now. Here are the two views:
"It's a Multifaceted Issue"
In the camp of, "We don't have enough truckers, and it's a multifaceted issue," here's a quick snapshot of the complex issues. Truckers have:
- An Aging Workforce: The median age of truck drivers is higher than the national average. With many drivers approaching retirement age, there's a somewhat urgent need to replenish the workforce.
- Exacting Regulations: Trucking is heavily regulated, and for good reason. However, those very regulations are also limiting the number of people from getting their CDL, especially with the younger crowd.
- A Trucker Lifestyle: Life on the road can be difficult. Long hours and time away from home isn't for everyone. It takes a certain person that can do long hauls for more than about three years.
- Stigma: Some view trucking as having a lingering stigma around it. Despite efforts to dispel the myths, many see it as low paying, isolating, and not requiring any sort of problem-solving skills.
- Economic Factors: General trucking follows the ebb and flow of the economy.
"It's a Simple Issue"
Those who say the trucking issue is a simple one, state that the American Trucking Association's efforts have resulted in an oversupply of people entering the industry, which has resulted in a turnover issue moreso than a driver shortage problem.
Too many drivers results in lower driver pay. This in turn causes a higher turnover rate, because drivers will switch jobs for an extra penny or two per mile, and that's believed to be the core of the problem in this camp.
And turnover is alarmingly expensive. Trucking companies spend $2-3K on one hire, and then $4-5K on training a person. If the new hire leaves three weeks later, then the company has just spent $6-8K on one person and they get to do it all over again three weeks later.
One trucker, Martin, who began his trucking career in 2008, was asked if there's a driver shortage? "There never has been. There never will be." (Source 1, Source 2)
What's Observable
What's observable in New Jersey on the three interstates and five state highways near our home is that:
1) There is no observable shortage of semis on the road.
2) What there is a shortage of, is good semi drivers!
My daughter worked in the trucking industry for a few years, so I know a bit about what constitutes a good driver. And once you see it, you can't un-see it, because good semi truck drivers drive differently than cars do. Case in point, semi drivers will not weave in and out of traffic, will stay out of the left lane, and maintain the same speed.
Ever since 2020, what's on the road is about 60% good drivers, and 40% drivers that make me wonder how on earth they got their CDL. The standards at some driving schools seems to have dropped quite low, and it's concerning to say the least. What's more worrying is, no one is discussing the lowered training standards.
I personally doubt this is a multifaceted issue, based on all the trucks on the road, but on the other hand, whenever people are involved, things are rarely cut-and-dry. All issues raised under the multifaceted approach are all quite valid, but are also somewhat timeless. The big critical and observable issue is that on highways every day the true shortage isn't in drivers, but in skilled, reliable drivers.
What's also clear is that by addressing the (controllable) root causes--such as adequate pay per mile and proper training--the trucking industry will be able to steer toward solutions.
Be sure to tune in next month as we cover one of the paper industry's perennially pertinent issues: safety.
|
